Vaccine Calculator

Have you seen this yet? The New York Times put out this tool to help people estimate their place in line for the COVID-19 vaccine. Pretty cool.

My hubby and I are a little past 7 millionth in line.

In our county, that is. As far as the rest of our state, or the country, who knows?

I’ve decided to quit worrying about people refusing the vaccine. It’s going to be months before they have a chance to do that anyway. 

This is why I’m not worrying. I think the problem is overstated. I think the marginal few who never shut up about it are just busy being single-focused because they have no better way to get attention.

My plan is to ignore the issue, in the same way that the media have learned to downplay serial killers and mass murderers. Do what you want - we can’t stop you - but that doesn’t mean you rate an audience for it.

What I think is going to happen is that people like my husband and me are going to eagerly watch for news of when the vaccine will be available, and we’re going to take the first available spot. We’ll get our shots, and we’ll quickly be able to resume normal activities.

(This probably won’t happen until late spring at best).

Other parts of the world will also rapidly be distributing their own supplies of the vaccine. Depending on the size of the country, and whether it is an island nation, some of these places will quickly see their cases drop. They’ll start going weeks, and then months, with zero cases.

Areas like Oceania might start allowing inter-regional travel.

Those who are still trapped in hotbeds of the virus will start feeling a serious case of FOMO - fear of missing out.

It reminds me of one of my favorite Indian restaurants in Portland - India House, please order from them if you live in the area, I’d like them to stay in business. There is no foyer, so when people come in out of the rain and cold and want to wait for a table, they basically stand there, only feet or yards away from people who are still trying to finish their meals. (I have been those people). It’s like, it smells great anyway, but then you have to watch people eat that tantalizing food right next to you, so close you could just reach out and grab yourself some naan.

That’ll be us when Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, and the UK are all COVID-free.

After a few million people have gotten their shots and nothing bad has happened, it’s going to start being more and more obvious that it’s okay.

There is always a spectrum of behavior, where some people are at the extreme ends and most people fall somewhere along the middle. On one extreme here are the bio-hackers, the sorts of people who are comfortable brewing up their own vaccines out in the garage and just ramming them into their own arms, on video. That’s, uh, sort of a bad idea? But they’re just as entitled to the “My Body to Ruin” argument as the rest of us, I suppose.

On the other extreme are the “I only think about two things, and those are refusing vaccines and trying to tell everyone all about it all the time” people.

Almost nobody is on that end, and I think even a few of those outliers might eventually be willing to budge this time.

Okay, I get the position that they are worried the vaccine might do bad things to them. You know what definitely does bad things to you? COVID-19.

I actually wish someone would try to tell me they think it’s a hoax. That would be fun.

We had a moment like that at work last week. A guy was saying he wasn’t sure whether he believed it was serious or not, and I sort of put him on blast for a few minutes. He will probably remain a skeptic about any and all things, until the end of his days, and it’s not my job to try to change that.

The other people in the meeting, though, were unaware of the hard time I have had with the coronavirus. I think hearing it from someone they knew personally brought it into sharper focus.

What I’m telling you is not that it will kill you. Driving on the freeway can do that. What I’m telling you is that you have a 1-in-3 chance of having “long COVID” like me and still dealing with issues over six months later.

One of my friends who got COVID the same day as me? Just went on short-term disability.

We’re not over it.

I gave a three-minute speech last week, and I was short of breath for three hours afterward.

This year, I have had some of the weirdest health symptoms I’ve ever had in my life. I almost died; in fact, I think I almost died half a dozen specific times. I have as much reason as anyone to be a bit worried about side effects.

Does it make you feel better to know how beyond-excited I am about getting this vaccine?

I’m doing all sorts of calculations right now. I’m estimating how long it will be before I can get my shot. I’m calculating how I can schedule it so that I have time for both doses, plus the appropriate buffer afterward, and go visit my family. I’m guesstimating whether everyone I want to see in person will rush out and get immunized.

Most of all, I’m calculating what could happen if more people start taking vaccination seriously as the miracle that it is, and what will happen with more research and development, more funding, and more participation.